In the midst of rapidly evolving global geopolitics, China is asserting itself as a global economic powerhouse, aiming to extend its influence in strategically significant regions, including Libya. After years of economic withdrawal following the 2011 revolution, Beijing is making a robust return, capitalizing on Libya’s urgent need for reconstruction and economic development. This shift presents a formidable challenge to the traditional dominance of American influence in the region.
Calculated Pragmatism
Recent developments illustrate China’s pragmatic and cautious approach. On Tuesday, Minister of Economy and Trade Mohamed Al-Hweij engaged in discussions with leading Chinese companies to explore potential cooperation in various sectors, including industry, construction, and infrastructure. This initiative follows the visit of Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, head of the Government of National Unity, to China last May, during which the reactivation of economic and political cooperation between the two nations was a focal point.
Historical Ties
China’s resurgence in Libya is not without precedent. Prior to 2011, Chinese companies were heavily involved in major projects in Libya, with investments exceeding $20 billion in sectors such as oil, construction, railways, and telecommunications. Currently, Beijing aims to reclaim and expand this economic foothold, leveraging the gap left by Western nations, especially the United States.
Positive Neutrality
China’s strategy in Libya is distinct from traditional American influence in several respects. Firstly, Beijing emphasizes economic and developmental cooperation, steering clear of direct involvement in Libya’s internal political affairs, unlike Russia and other Western and regional powers. Additionally, China adopts a policy of “positive neutrality,” maintaining relations with both the Government of National Unity in Tripoli and the leadership in eastern Libya, including the General Command and the House of Representatives. Furthermore, China offers a developmental model focused on infrastructure and large-scale projects, aligning with Libya’s reconstruction needs.
Engagement with Tripoli
In May, Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh invited Chinese companies to resume halted projects in Libya, highlighting Beijing’s crucial role in the country’s reconstruction efforts. Dbeibeh inaugurated the first Libyan-Chinese economic forum in Beijing, under the theme “Libya and China: Partners in Development and Reconstruction.” The event saw the participation of 84 Chinese companies across various sectors, alongside senior officials from the Libyan government. Dbeibeh emphasized China’s role in restarting stalled projects and contracting Chinese firms for the initial phase of joint cooperation. Notably, the number of Chinese workers in Libya has increased to over 23,000, up from 5,000 in recent years.
Engagement with Benghazi
Earlier, in February, Speaker of the House of Representatives Aguila Saleh met with Saleh Atiyah, head of the Chinese companies’ alliance “BFI,” led by China Railway International Corporation, along with Ali Al-Saidi, Minister of Economy in the government appointed by the House. Discussions centered on renewable energy projects, such as solar power plants in Kufra, Al-Makhili, and Tamanhint, and ambitious infrastructure projects, including a railway linking Benghazi with Marsa Matruh in Egypt via the Libyan-Egyptian border town of Musaid.
Two months prior, Chinese firms signed agreements with Belkacem Haftar, head of the Libyan Reconstruction Fund, to implement reconstruction projects in Derna and areas affected by floods in the Green Mountain region. In late October, Minister of Economy in Benghazi, Ali Al-Saidi, told Radio France International that “China is now a key player capable of building bridges, infrastructure, and roads very swiftly.” Al-Saidi revealed that China is funding a $30 billion metro project in Libya through the “BFI” alliance, sharing exclusive information known only to his ministry and the parties involved in the agreement.
A Challenge to the U.S.
China’s approach poses a challenge to American influence in Libya on multiple fronts. Economically, it offers a strong alternative to Western companies, many of which hesitate to invest in Libya due to security concerns. Politically, China’s presence enhances Libya’s ability to maneuver in international relations, potentially diminishing American influence.
On June 14, Jennifer Gavito, nominee for U.S. Ambassador to Libya, warned of the growing Chinese influence in Libya, particularly in the technology sector. She noted that Chinese companies, such as Huawei and ZTE, dominate Libya’s 4G network, urging a defense of American industry and highlighting the vulnerabilities Libya faces from unreliable suppliers for its national security and critical infrastructure.
In a lengthy Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Gavito emphasized the need to bolster U.S. diplomatic presence in Libya, advocating for the resumption of embassy operations in Tripoli with a focus on the safety and security of American personnel. She underscored that the absence of a permanent diplomatic presence gives strategic competitors like Russia and China a greater foothold.
A Sustainable Challenge
However, China’s challenge to U.S. influence in Libya differs fundamentally from Russia’s approach. While Russia adopts a more overt military and security stance, supporting eastern Libyan forces led by Khalifa Haftar, China focuses on economic and developmental aspects. This economic-centric strategy makes China’s influence more sustainable and palatable in the long term, particularly given Libya’s pressing need for investment and expertise in reconstruction.
A Developmental Model
China’s growing role in Libya presents the United States with a strategic challenge, necessitating a reevaluation of its policies in the region. While Washington concentrates on security and political issues, Beijing offers a developmental model that may be more attractive to Libyan leadership and the public. This scenario requires the U.S. to develop a comprehensive strategy that integrates political, security, and economic support to maintain its influence in this strategically vital country.
Can the U.S. Succeed?
As China emerges as a significant economic player in Libya, the landscape becomes increasingly complex. While this could enhance Libya’s reconstruction and development efforts, it simultaneously presents a new challenge to traditional American influence. The pressing question remains: Can the United States craft an effective strategy to address this new challenge, or will Libya witness a gradual shift in the balance of power in favor of Beijing?